Analysis | The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Time for a Diplomatic Solution?
It might be worth considering a regional coalition led by the United States, the Abraham Accords countries, and relations with Saudi Arabia, which could help promote a political solution
Dan Arkin
| 15/04/2024
Photo: IDF website
Holocaust Remembrance Day, Memorial Day and Independence Day have come and gone this year with a profound sense of sorrow, mixed with very little joy. The State of Israel is entering its 77th year. How does it look? It appears as a tremendous paradox.
The IDF is the strongest military in the region. A military whose commanders and soldiers are demonstrating, in these very days, their combat abilities, leadership, bravery, courage, and willingness for sacrifice, despite the great disgrace that preceded the war. An army that possesses thousands of tanks and hundreds of aircraft, modern equipment, electronics, optics, avionics, Unit 8200, and advanced intelligence of all kinds.
For the past seven months, this army has been fighting a terrorist organization – and might have to fight an even stronger one soon, with the prospect of severe damage to the civilian front. On the eve of Independence Day, Israel – with just under 10 million residents – is engaged in a five-front war: Hamas, Hezbollah, West Bank terrorism, a nearly nuclear Iran, and the Houthis who will soon become like Hamas and Hezbollah, threatening Eilat.
No country in the world is fighting on five fronts. On the eve of Independence Day, someone calculated how many years the IDF has been fighting in Gaza, how many soldiers have fallen and been wounded in battles there since 1956. How many years the Israeli public has known by heart the city of Gaza and its neighborhoods: Khan Younis, Rafah, Shuja'iyya, Zeitoun. Seemingly, what do we have to do with these neighborhoods and their residents? We were there close by, and we left. We disengaged, or were expelled, however you want to put it. We are not there.
There were hopes that the world’s great nations would help defeat the terrorist organizations in the Middle East. The U.S. once formed a coalition to defeat ISIS and succeeded. This time, since October 7, the U.S. has been with us, providing plenty of equipment, arms, ammunition, and vehicles. But it's only assistance. The Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, together with the Fifth Fleet and CENTCOM in the Gulf hold hundreds of fighter jets. However, the American policy remains the same: immediately after striking the enemy, they begin providing "humanitarian aid" and start reconstruction. There is no thorough effort to destroy the terrorist organization that attacked Israel with unprecedented brutality.
On the eve of Independence Day, the majority of the Israeli public is convinced that the number one mission right now is to bring the hostages home. The IDF is on the outskirts of Rafah, and as of this writing, has not entered it, by order of Washington. Brigades are forced to fight for the second and third time in the northern and central parts of the Gaza Strip, where we have already been, and once again there are Red Alerts in the border communities, in Sderot, and even in Be'er Sheva.
The limitations of a military solution
Maybe it's time to change our approach. To start thinking differently, to consider that a non-military solution might be possible. If the negotiations for a framework to release the hostages succeed, perhaps this could serve as a basis for continuing negotiations toward a new type of solution. Within the hostage release negotiation talks lies the seed of an attempt to pursue a different path, one that would be based on a new coalition— the United States, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and, from a bit of a distance, Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is currently the key diplomatic player in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords with the UAE and others form a foundation. The peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan are another foundation. The Saudis made a small but symbolic contribution on the night of the Iranian attack against Israel. In Riyadh, they hate Tehran even more than in Jerusalem.
It would appear that Saudi Arabia’s MBS is sitting quietly and waiting for something. He speaks little, as he must pay lip service to the Palestinians and Al-Aqsa, but his focus is westward, towards Washington. MBS wants some form of defense alliance with the U.S. and aims to equip his Royal Air Force with stealthy F-35s in addition to the large fleet of F-15s.
Verbally, he is obligated to condemn Israel's actions in Gaza, but Saudi Arabia has longstanding ties with Israel under the radar. The formula of the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt is the salvaging formula, and there is no other formula besides continuing the fighting in Gaza and the north.
It's possible that this could be the key to some movement towards a non-military but rather diplomatic solution to the never-ending and seemingly endless conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, and the surrounding terrorist organizations from north to south and from the Persian Gulf.
Such thinking might seem imaginary today, after the horrors of October 7. However, it's possible that precisely because of those horrors, the sensible, pragmatic, non-messianic, and non-nationalistic Israeli public may begin to contemplate the possibility of a new approach.
It's preferable that the recognition of the vital necessity of a diplomatic, non-military solution comes from the grassroots, from the public, from various protest movements, from the mainstream media, from academia, from educators, and from experts in political science. The current leadership is far removed from considering a diplomatic solution.
What is the solution? It's too early to delve into details. It will come later along the way, which will be long and full of lessons. But before that, it's advisable for the public to start thinking differently. 76 years of memorial days for fallen soldiers. Decades of personal and national mourning. Simhat Torah turning into mourning teaches a lesson about the enemy's brutality, killing and murder, rape, degradation, captivity, and the abduction of infants and elderly.
Fears and objections
How is it possible that after all this, there are still concerns that October 7 might repeat itself and occur in the sparsely populated northern settlements, perhaps in communities close to Jenin and Tulkarem? The mighty IDF has not yet succeeded in preventing it, and the enemy is undeterred. The threat is real, and Hezbollah's drones continue to roam the skies of the north despite the world's best air defense systems.
It's possible that in the north, there is a better chance for a new arrangement. Nasrallah and Hezbollah, unlike Hamas in Gaza, are situated within a state, Lebanon. Nasrallah knows well that war could turn Beirut into Gaza. He is familiar with the thoughts of the IDF and the Air Force in case of war. In Lebanon, there is also intimate involvement from the French and Americans, and the emissary Amos Hochstein continues to shuttle between capitals. He speaks “American”, French, and Hebrew.
Perhaps there's another way besides Arrow 3, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and top-notch lasers. Therefore, the immediate return of the hostages, all of them and right away, should be the top priority. After that, a calculated exploitation of a new reality in our region: there's dialogue for Israel with many Arab states, there are peace agreements, and there's a Saudi Arabia that is currently not a declared enemy and is a key state. America and Europe support a diplomatic solution. It's imperative to think in this direction – and to try.
It might be worth considering a regional coalition led by the United States, the Abraham Accords countries, and relations with Saudi Arabia, which could help promote a political solution
Photo: IDF website
Holocaust Remembrance Day, Memorial Day and Independence Day have come and gone this year with a profound sense of sorrow, mixed with very little joy. The State of Israel is entering its 77th year. How does it look? It appears as a tremendous paradox.
The IDF is the strongest military in the region. A military whose commanders and soldiers are demonstrating, in these very days, their combat abilities, leadership, bravery, courage, and willingness for sacrifice, despite the great disgrace that preceded the war. An army that possesses thousands of tanks and hundreds of aircraft, modern equipment, electronics, optics, avionics, Unit 8200, and advanced intelligence of all kinds.
For the past seven months, this army has been fighting a terrorist organization – and might have to fight an even stronger one soon, with the prospect of severe damage to the civilian front. On the eve of Independence Day, Israel – with just under 10 million residents – is engaged in a five-front war: Hamas, Hezbollah, West Bank terrorism, a nearly nuclear Iran, and the Houthis who will soon become like Hamas and Hezbollah, threatening Eilat.
No country in the world is fighting on five fronts. On the eve of Independence Day, someone calculated how many years the IDF has been fighting in Gaza, how many soldiers have fallen and been wounded in battles there since 1956. How many years the Israeli public has known by heart the city of Gaza and its neighborhoods: Khan Younis, Rafah, Shuja'iyya, Zeitoun. Seemingly, what do we have to do with these neighborhoods and their residents? We were there close by, and we left. We disengaged, or were expelled, however you want to put it. We are not there.
There were hopes that the world’s great nations would help defeat the terrorist organizations in the Middle East. The U.S. once formed a coalition to defeat ISIS and succeeded. This time, since October 7, the U.S. has been with us, providing plenty of equipment, arms, ammunition, and vehicles. But it's only assistance. The Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, together with the Fifth Fleet and CENTCOM in the Gulf hold hundreds of fighter jets. However, the American policy remains the same: immediately after striking the enemy, they begin providing "humanitarian aid" and start reconstruction. There is no thorough effort to destroy the terrorist organization that attacked Israel with unprecedented brutality.
On the eve of Independence Day, the majority of the Israeli public is convinced that the number one mission right now is to bring the hostages home. The IDF is on the outskirts of Rafah, and as of this writing, has not entered it, by order of Washington. Brigades are forced to fight for the second and third time in the northern and central parts of the Gaza Strip, where we have already been, and once again there are Red Alerts in the border communities, in Sderot, and even in Be'er Sheva.
The limitations of a military solution
Maybe it's time to change our approach. To start thinking differently, to consider that a non-military solution might be possible. If the negotiations for a framework to release the hostages succeed, perhaps this could serve as a basis for continuing negotiations toward a new type of solution. Within the hostage release negotiation talks lies the seed of an attempt to pursue a different path, one that would be based on a new coalition— the United States, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and, from a bit of a distance, Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is currently the key diplomatic player in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords with the UAE and others form a foundation. The peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan are another foundation. The Saudis made a small but symbolic contribution on the night of the Iranian attack against Israel. In Riyadh, they hate Tehran even more than in Jerusalem.
It would appear that Saudi Arabia’s MBS is sitting quietly and waiting for something. He speaks little, as he must pay lip service to the Palestinians and Al-Aqsa, but his focus is westward, towards Washington. MBS wants some form of defense alliance with the U.S. and aims to equip his Royal Air Force with stealthy F-35s in addition to the large fleet of F-15s.
Verbally, he is obligated to condemn Israel's actions in Gaza, but Saudi Arabia has longstanding ties with Israel under the radar. The formula of the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt is the salvaging formula, and there is no other formula besides continuing the fighting in Gaza and the north.
It's possible that this could be the key to some movement towards a non-military but rather diplomatic solution to the never-ending and seemingly endless conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, and the surrounding terrorist organizations from north to south and from the Persian Gulf.
Such thinking might seem imaginary today, after the horrors of October 7. However, it's possible that precisely because of those horrors, the sensible, pragmatic, non-messianic, and non-nationalistic Israeli public may begin to contemplate the possibility of a new approach.
It's preferable that the recognition of the vital necessity of a diplomatic, non-military solution comes from the grassroots, from the public, from various protest movements, from the mainstream media, from academia, from educators, and from experts in political science. The current leadership is far removed from considering a diplomatic solution.
What is the solution? It's too early to delve into details. It will come later along the way, which will be long and full of lessons. But before that, it's advisable for the public to start thinking differently. 76 years of memorial days for fallen soldiers. Decades of personal and national mourning. Simhat Torah turning into mourning teaches a lesson about the enemy's brutality, killing and murder, rape, degradation, captivity, and the abduction of infants and elderly.
Fears and objections
How is it possible that after all this, there are still concerns that October 7 might repeat itself and occur in the sparsely populated northern settlements, perhaps in communities close to Jenin and Tulkarem? The mighty IDF has not yet succeeded in preventing it, and the enemy is undeterred. The threat is real, and Hezbollah's drones continue to roam the skies of the north despite the world's best air defense systems.
It's possible that in the north, there is a better chance for a new arrangement. Nasrallah and Hezbollah, unlike Hamas in Gaza, are situated within a state, Lebanon. Nasrallah knows well that war could turn Beirut into Gaza. He is familiar with the thoughts of the IDF and the Air Force in case of war. In Lebanon, there is also intimate involvement from the French and Americans, and the emissary Amos Hochstein continues to shuttle between capitals. He speaks “American”, French, and Hebrew.
Perhaps there's another way besides Arrow 3, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and top-notch lasers. Therefore, the immediate return of the hostages, all of them and right away, should be the top priority. After that, a calculated exploitation of a new reality in our region: there's dialogue for Israel with many Arab states, there are peace agreements, and there's a Saudi Arabia that is currently not a declared enemy and is a key state. America and Europe support a diplomatic solution. It's imperative to think in this direction – and to try.
