Amir Rapaport's Column: Gallant Tried to Sound the Alarm About the Iranian Bomb, But the U.S. Is Deep in Election Season
Increasing preparations for war in Lebanon and Gaza: The IDF has completed the perimeter and practically moved to phase three of the war
Amir Rapaport
| 27/06/2024
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
For many years, Israel has warned of a scenario in which Iran would possess enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb and break out into its first bomb while exploiting a special international situation. Years have passed. Iran has long been considered a "nuclear threshold" state, and now, the combination of circumstances in which Israel is deeply engaged in wars on many fronts while the United States is entering the final stretch of a presidential election campaign could present such an opportunity.
The concern about Iran breaking out from a nuclear threshold state to an actual bomb was one of the topics discussed by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant this week in Washington. The goal is to reinforce the historical commitment of the United States that "Iran will never reach a nuclear bomb," but what is primarily capturing America's attention is the confrontation between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which took place on Thursday night.
Progress of the Iranian Nuclear Program
In any case, even if Iran has decided to start producing its first nuclear bomb, it will not be able to do so very quickly, certainly not by the November elections. To assess the danger, it is important to understand that Iran has learned the lessons of Iraq, Libya, and later Syria, and operates its nuclear program through several parallel channels. In one channel, it established a reactor for producing fissile material based on plutonium in Bushehr, which it quite easily agreed to shut down under the 2015 agreement with the world powers, which was canceled in 2018 by President Trump (encouraged by Prime Minister Netanyahu).
The Iranians are already focusing on the path to producing a bomb through uranium enrichment at two underground centrifuge facilities—Natanz and Fordow. These facilities have undergone a long series of disruption actions, including the “Stuxnet" cyberattack. However, today Iran possesses an amount of enriched uranium at a level of no less than 60 percent, which is enough for at least five nuclear bombs.
Preparing for what lies ahead
Iran's enrichment activities have been renewed and steadily escalated since 2019, about a year after the collapse of the agreement. Today, it's solely an Iranian decision: when to bring uranium enrichment to the required level for a bomb—90 percent. They could complete enrichment within a few weeks. In history, no country has enriched uranium to 60% without eventually developing a nuclear bomb.
But, and this is a significant "but," to produce the first bomb, Iran also needs a warhead and a delivery system. Scientists working parallel to the enrichment facilities, known as the "weaponization group," are responsible for this. The head of this group, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in November 2020 in an operation attributed by global media to Israeli intelligence, but his knowledge is preserved and continues to develop.
Between the Iranian threat and the tensions in Lebanon
The Iranian issue is closely linked to escalating tensions in Lebanon, which was also a focal point of discussions by the Defense Minister in Washington. On one hand, all signs point towards an imminent large-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The beginning of summer marks the anniversary of both the First and Second Lebanon Wars. Currently, both sides are visibly preparing for a broad confrontation, including mobilizing reservists for northern units on the Israeli side.
The United States has already issued a travel warning for its citizens planning to visit Lebanon due to the escalating tensions. However, both sides have much to lose from mutual destruction in both countries. Generally, neither side desires war, but it could break out soon due to a mistaken assessment of the situation by one side fearing a "preemptive strike" from the other, and due to Israel's limited ability to stabilize the situation in the North through other means, as long as fighting continues in the Gaza Strip.
Developments in the South: Conclusion of the Second Stage in the Gaza Conflict
Meanwhile, the IDF is completing its preparations for a possible war in Lebanon, essentially concluding the second stage of the Gaza conflict. The main focus shifts northward. In the south, there were no ceremonies, of course, but the completion of securing the Philadelphi Route—from Kerem Shalom to the sea—and establishing the Netzarim Corridor” between Nahal Oz and the sea, essentially depict the conclusion of this stage.
Similarly, the almost complete exposure of a nearly one-kilometer-wide strip, known as the "Perimeter," along the entire Gaza-Israel border, 60 kilometers long. The perimeter project was carried out by the 143rd Division, responsible for defense around the Gaza Strip, while the 162nd and 99th brigades prepared for prolonged readiness on both axes within the Strip.
What should we expect next?
In the next stage, there will be targeted surprise raids beyond maintaining the axes, similar to the operations in Sajaiya and Beit Hanoun that began this Wednesday. During this phase, the IDF will not establish permanent positions within Gaza but will control it through mobile forces, ambushes, and fire from within Israeli territory. Israel's control over the perimeter, as well as the Philadelphia Corridor, is likely to continue for an extended period.
It's hard to envision Israel giving up these areas, even if there's an agreement to end the war and return captives. The number of infiltrations within the perimeter is minimal. Palestinians dare not enter it. Therefore, the main fighting occurs along the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes, and occasional clashes are still reported within the Southern Command's war room.
The complex situation on the southern front
Despite Hamas deciding not to engage in direct confrontations with the IDF, it has shifted to the next stage in its warfare—guerrilla tactics. Hamas deploys small cells of 2-3 individuals at most to attack IDF forces. Unfortunately, Hamas still possesses command and control capabilities to operate these cells effectively.
In most direct confrontations, Hamas terrorists have lost. For instance, last weekend, the IDF eliminated over 47 Hamas members in a single day. However, on that same day, a mortar shell struck a group of reservist soldiers, killing fighters Omer Samdaja and Saadia Drai, and injuring others. Hamas's success is also attributed to unfortunate timing: the fighters had only been at their position for a few hours before the mortar attack, preventing Hamas from preparing extensively for that assault.
The IDF’s feelings and feats
In the broader picture, the hard event doesn't change the senior commanders' feeling in the Southern Command: "We prevailed." According to this spirit, Hamas was countered in every direct confrontation with IDF forces. The morale among regular soldiers and reservists generally remains resilient, even after months of fighting. The number of heroic stories is immense.
In the Southern Command recently conducted a rapid assessment comparing the achievements of the IDF in the Gaza Strip to those of US forces and other armies against ISIS in Mosul, northern Iraq. In this comparison, the IDF's achievements in terms of enemy casualties versus the extent of damage to our forces are unprecedented on a global scale. This is particularly significant considering the long time Hamas had to prepare for this war and the vast number of underground tunnels.
From the IDF's perspective, it's time to declare: "We have won." Unofficially, commanders within the IDF are already sharing this sentiment.
*Some of the information in this column was gathered at the "Intelligence Friday" gathering of the Intelligence Heritage Association, in collaboration with Israel Defense.
I would love to hear your thoughts and comments. Please be in touch via Twitter and LinkedIn.
Increasing preparations for war in Lebanon and Gaza: The IDF has completed the perimeter and practically moved to phase three of the war
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
For many years, Israel has warned of a scenario in which Iran would possess enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb and break out into its first bomb while exploiting a special international situation. Years have passed. Iran has long been considered a "nuclear threshold" state, and now, the combination of circumstances in which Israel is deeply engaged in wars on many fronts while the United States is entering the final stretch of a presidential election campaign could present such an opportunity.
The concern about Iran breaking out from a nuclear threshold state to an actual bomb was one of the topics discussed by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant this week in Washington. The goal is to reinforce the historical commitment of the United States that "Iran will never reach a nuclear bomb," but what is primarily capturing America's attention is the confrontation between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which took place on Thursday night.
Progress of the Iranian Nuclear Program
In any case, even if Iran has decided to start producing its first nuclear bomb, it will not be able to do so very quickly, certainly not by the November elections. To assess the danger, it is important to understand that Iran has learned the lessons of Iraq, Libya, and later Syria, and operates its nuclear program through several parallel channels. In one channel, it established a reactor for producing fissile material based on plutonium in Bushehr, which it quite easily agreed to shut down under the 2015 agreement with the world powers, which was canceled in 2018 by President Trump (encouraged by Prime Minister Netanyahu).
The Iranians are already focusing on the path to producing a bomb through uranium enrichment at two underground centrifuge facilities—Natanz and Fordow. These facilities have undergone a long series of disruption actions, including the “Stuxnet" cyberattack. However, today Iran possesses an amount of enriched uranium at a level of no less than 60 percent, which is enough for at least five nuclear bombs.
Preparing for what lies ahead
Iran's enrichment activities have been renewed and steadily escalated since 2019, about a year after the collapse of the agreement. Today, it's solely an Iranian decision: when to bring uranium enrichment to the required level for a bomb—90 percent. They could complete enrichment within a few weeks. In history, no country has enriched uranium to 60% without eventually developing a nuclear bomb.
But, and this is a significant "but," to produce the first bomb, Iran also needs a warhead and a delivery system. Scientists working parallel to the enrichment facilities, known as the "weaponization group," are responsible for this. The head of this group, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in November 2020 in an operation attributed by global media to Israeli intelligence, but his knowledge is preserved and continues to develop.
Between the Iranian threat and the tensions in Lebanon
The Iranian issue is closely linked to escalating tensions in Lebanon, which was also a focal point of discussions by the Defense Minister in Washington. On one hand, all signs point towards an imminent large-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The beginning of summer marks the anniversary of both the First and Second Lebanon Wars. Currently, both sides are visibly preparing for a broad confrontation, including mobilizing reservists for northern units on the Israeli side.
The United States has already issued a travel warning for its citizens planning to visit Lebanon due to the escalating tensions. However, both sides have much to lose from mutual destruction in both countries. Generally, neither side desires war, but it could break out soon due to a mistaken assessment of the situation by one side fearing a "preemptive strike" from the other, and due to Israel's limited ability to stabilize the situation in the North through other means, as long as fighting continues in the Gaza Strip.
Developments in the South: Conclusion of the Second Stage in the Gaza Conflict
Meanwhile, the IDF is completing its preparations for a possible war in Lebanon, essentially concluding the second stage of the Gaza conflict. The main focus shifts northward. In the south, there were no ceremonies, of course, but the completion of securing the Philadelphi Route—from Kerem Shalom to the sea—and establishing the Netzarim Corridor” between Nahal Oz and the sea, essentially depict the conclusion of this stage.
Similarly, the almost complete exposure of a nearly one-kilometer-wide strip, known as the "Perimeter," along the entire Gaza-Israel border, 60 kilometers long. The perimeter project was carried out by the 143rd Division, responsible for defense around the Gaza Strip, while the 162nd and 99th brigades prepared for prolonged readiness on both axes within the Strip.
What should we expect next?
In the next stage, there will be targeted surprise raids beyond maintaining the axes, similar to the operations in Sajaiya and Beit Hanoun that began this Wednesday. During this phase, the IDF will not establish permanent positions within Gaza but will control it through mobile forces, ambushes, and fire from within Israeli territory. Israel's control over the perimeter, as well as the Philadelphia Corridor, is likely to continue for an extended period.
It's hard to envision Israel giving up these areas, even if there's an agreement to end the war and return captives. The number of infiltrations within the perimeter is minimal. Palestinians dare not enter it. Therefore, the main fighting occurs along the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes, and occasional clashes are still reported within the Southern Command's war room.
The complex situation on the southern front
Despite Hamas deciding not to engage in direct confrontations with the IDF, it has shifted to the next stage in its warfare—guerrilla tactics. Hamas deploys small cells of 2-3 individuals at most to attack IDF forces. Unfortunately, Hamas still possesses command and control capabilities to operate these cells effectively.
In most direct confrontations, Hamas terrorists have lost. For instance, last weekend, the IDF eliminated over 47 Hamas members in a single day. However, on that same day, a mortar shell struck a group of reservist soldiers, killing fighters Omer Samdaja and Saadia Drai, and injuring others. Hamas's success is also attributed to unfortunate timing: the fighters had only been at their position for a few hours before the mortar attack, preventing Hamas from preparing extensively for that assault.
The IDF’s feelings and feats
In the broader picture, the hard event doesn't change the senior commanders' feeling in the Southern Command: "We prevailed." According to this spirit, Hamas was countered in every direct confrontation with IDF forces. The morale among regular soldiers and reservists generally remains resilient, even after months of fighting. The number of heroic stories is immense.
In the Southern Command recently conducted a rapid assessment comparing the achievements of the IDF in the Gaza Strip to those of US forces and other armies against ISIS in Mosul, northern Iraq. In this comparison, the IDF's achievements in terms of enemy casualties versus the extent of damage to our forces are unprecedented on a global scale. This is particularly significant considering the long time Hamas had to prepare for this war and the vast number of underground tunnels.
From the IDF's perspective, it's time to declare: "We have won." Unofficially, commanders within the IDF are already sharing this sentiment.
*Some of the information in this column was gathered at the "Intelligence Friday" gathering of the Intelligence Heritage Association, in collaboration with Israel Defense.
I would love to hear your thoughts and comments. Please be in touch via Twitter and LinkedIn.
