The War in the North and the Iranian Threat: What We’re Doing to Weaken Ourselves
The IDF is an organization, not just an idea. The burnout its troops are experiencing is not its only challenge on the way to a broader conflict in the north
Amir Rapaport
| 20/06/2024
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
The developments of the fighting in northern Israel and the statements from both sides of the border are leading to a significant probability of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon.
Thus, the statement made this week by Hassan Nasrallah that "we are fighting without rules and borders," alongside threats issued against Lebanon from Israel, including a special message in English from an IDF spokesperson, only emphasize that war is increasingly imminent. This comes after from the outset, no one gave great odds for the success of the efforts of American mediator Amos Hochstein, who this week also spent his time shuttling between capitals in the region.
Looking back, senior officials in Israel estimate that the broader war between Israel and Hezbollah was already on the brink several months ago, were it not for the heavy pressure exerted by the Americans to prevent it. This pressure is still seen, but ultimately it appears that even it will not prevent the escalation of serious clashes. At the moment, no other solution seems to be on the horizon that could bring the residents of the northern border back to their homes. It seems that only war could fundamentally change the situation. However, its cost will be heavy and may include additional fronts.
In the broader picture, we must also acknowledge that so far we have failed in the fundamental mission of the war in Gaza: following the severe blow we suffered on the morning of October 7 and Hezbollah's hesitant and symbolic joining of the fray, initially, one of the undisclosed goals of the southern war was to send a message that anyone who harms the State of Israel, especially its civilians, will pay an unbearable price. In other words, to restore the deterrence that has collapsed.
However, even after more than eight months of fighting, Israel has not yet achieved one of its stated war goals – the weakening of Hamas's rule. Gazans themselves do not express regret over the attacks, according to recent Palestinian public opinion surveys. As time passes, Hezbollah's audacity against us seems to only increase, to the point where the brazen message of the drone flying over Haifa goes unanswered. This is without even mentioning the direct missile and drone attack from Iran in April. It seems our deterrence has only weakened further since that fateful morning in October.
The Battles in the Philadelphi Corridor
The main focal point is the way the IDF continues to conduct urban warfare in the densely populated Gaza Strip, which is causing concern among foreign militaries. This week, two main areas of combat were left in the Strip. One is the activity of the 99th Infantry Division, which is based on what was once the "Netzarim Axis," from Nahal Oz to the sea. The brigade has divided the strip into two parts, above and below ground.
The second main area of combat, of course, is in Rafah, the centerpiece of the war at the moment, led by the 162nd Division. This includes taking over the Philadelphi Corridor that spans 14 kilometers, from Kerem Shalom to the sea, and separates the Gaza Strip from Egypt.
The IDF’s takeover has already severed the smuggling route from Egypt to Gaza via the sea and enables dealing with the numerous underground tunnels in the area. Some of these tunnels are located dozens of meters deep, close to the water table. This doesn't mean that all tunnels between Gaza and Egypt have been destroyed, but in this domain, Hamas has suffered a significant blow.
Beyond Philadelphi, the fighting within Rafah itself focuses on a few specific neighborhoods such as Shabura and Tel Sultan. It is intense and challenging in the heavy heat. Hamas still retains command and control capabilities, concentrating on attacks using anti-tank missiles and explosives. However, overall, it has disappeared from the ground level and is avoiding direct confrontation with the IDF, hoping to resurface after our forces withdraw from the area.
Hamas also sets traps for the IDF – like a recent incident where terrorists posed as hostages and raised a white flag to lure IDF forces into rescuing them. A tank that reached the area was indeed attacked with missiles. Fortunately, there were no serious casualties in this incident. In another incident, an IDF unit in Rafah fell into a hornet’s nest – literally. Dozens of stung soldiers required evacuation from the area for medical treatment.
The forces’ burnout is already leading to operational mishaps. On that harsh Saturday last week, in which 11 soldiers were killed in three different incidents, the IDF not only suffered from the disaster involving the armored personnel carrier but also faced issues with explosive devices that did not detonate. However, the most severe burnout is psychological: regular and reserve soldiers (and their families) have been dealing with the immense stress of dangerous combat for many months. After every battle that ends safely, the next one already awaits.
Among reserve units, there is already a noticeable decline in the rate of reporting for duty (although the morale in most cases remains strong). Recently, among all fighters in Gaza, a trend has emerged that was present in very difficult global wars in the past – many soldiers carry farewell letters in their pockets, to be delivered to their loved ones in case they are harmed.
In the context of attrition, it is important to remember that the IDF is an organization, not an idea. It suffers greatly from attacks in the media, which began with criticism of career officers before the war. Morale among career soldiers is already low, and at the first opportunity after the war, thousands of career soldiers will leave the service. The IDF is almost helpless in the face of the crisis awaiting it, and perhaps this is why the IDF spokesperson and even the Chief of Staff (in a government meeting) have begun to openly oppose statements against commanders from the political echelon or its affiliates, such as the IDF spokesperson's announcement dedicated to criticizing the commentator close to Netanyahu, Yaakov Bardugo.
However, the statement by the IDF spokesperson on Channel 13 claiming that the promise to eliminate Hamas (even as an idea) is "delusional" can be considered controversial. This, in turn, led to an inflammatory post by Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi – "The IDF spokesperson's remarks this evening are merely a reflection of the weak leadership of the Chief of Staff and the Minister of Defense." Our enemies can take advantage of these internal battles, but the damage goes far beyond image.
Another note related to the fighting in Gaza: many who were involved in the heroic operation to rescue the four hostages from the heart of the Gaza Strip two weeks ago are protesting against the excessive chatter and the almost endless exposure of footage from the operation, as well as operational details about the activities of the undercover agents before and during the rescue. They have no doubt that Hamas operatives holding the remaining hostages in Gaza are already learning lessons from what happened and are aided by the information provided through these exaggerated publications (even though they are done with the approval of the censor).
The crisis with the US and the Iranian X factor
In light of the severe challenge in the Gaza Strip and what may yet await us in Lebanon and other fronts, what we truly need as a nation is absolute social cohesion and the mobilization of our allies overseas. But we are doing exactly the opposite. Domestically, the insistence on passing a law at this time that exempts an entire sector from military service is strategically damaging. Externally, there is no reasonable explanation for the video the Prime Minister released this week criticizing the United States regarding the armaments it is not sending us.
Regarding the matter at hand, it concerns a shipment of 3,500 bombs for the Air Force's fighter jets. This shipment will arrive sooner or later. Meanwhile, Israeli defense industries are working around the clock to supply the IDF with various types of munitions. As part of this effort, the relocation of IMI Systems' operators, currently part of Elbit Systems, from Ramat HaSharon to Ramat Beka, south of Be'er Sheva, has been postponed.
The video, however, has already led to the cancellation of a meeting of the most strategic discussion forum between Israel and the US, established by Benjamin Netanyahu and Barack Obama back in 2010. The main mandate of the forum is cooperation on the Iranian nuclear threat. The forum's discussion, which was supposed to start yesterday, was canceled after Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi had already arrived in Washington.
By the way, at the working levels, such as in intelligence and cyber fields, the cooperation between Israel and the U.S. remains very close and intimate, despite the escalating disputes at the top. However, the background noise is disruptive here as well. For instance, during a highly-sensitive discussion recently held in the U.S., a senior Israeli official was asked about a childish tweet by "the Israeli Minister of National Security," Itamar Ben Gvir, in which he wrote "Biden (heart) Hamas" – with a heart illustration. The embarrassed Israeli official had no way to explain this disgrace.
And here is the place to mention again, as I have already written in this column: Sometimes it seems like we are doing almost everything to undermine ourselves, while Iran is precisely exploiting these days to break through to its first nuclear bomb. This is the most serious development of these days, which is not receiving the public attention it deserves.
I would love to hear your thoughts and comments. Please be in touch via Twitter and LinkedIn.
The IDF is an organization, not just an idea. The burnout its troops are experiencing is not its only challenge on the way to a broader conflict in the north
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
The developments of the fighting in northern Israel and the statements from both sides of the border are leading to a significant probability of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon.
Thus, the statement made this week by Hassan Nasrallah that "we are fighting without rules and borders," alongside threats issued against Lebanon from Israel, including a special message in English from an IDF spokesperson, only emphasize that war is increasingly imminent. This comes after from the outset, no one gave great odds for the success of the efforts of American mediator Amos Hochstein, who this week also spent his time shuttling between capitals in the region.
Looking back, senior officials in Israel estimate that the broader war between Israel and Hezbollah was already on the brink several months ago, were it not for the heavy pressure exerted by the Americans to prevent it. This pressure is still seen, but ultimately it appears that even it will not prevent the escalation of serious clashes. At the moment, no other solution seems to be on the horizon that could bring the residents of the northern border back to their homes. It seems that only war could fundamentally change the situation. However, its cost will be heavy and may include additional fronts.
In the broader picture, we must also acknowledge that so far we have failed in the fundamental mission of the war in Gaza: following the severe blow we suffered on the morning of October 7 and Hezbollah's hesitant and symbolic joining of the fray, initially, one of the undisclosed goals of the southern war was to send a message that anyone who harms the State of Israel, especially its civilians, will pay an unbearable price. In other words, to restore the deterrence that has collapsed.
However, even after more than eight months of fighting, Israel has not yet achieved one of its stated war goals – the weakening of Hamas's rule. Gazans themselves do not express regret over the attacks, according to recent Palestinian public opinion surveys. As time passes, Hezbollah's audacity against us seems to only increase, to the point where the brazen message of the drone flying over Haifa goes unanswered. This is without even mentioning the direct missile and drone attack from Iran in April. It seems our deterrence has only weakened further since that fateful morning in October.
The Battles in the Philadelphi Corridor
The main focal point is the way the IDF continues to conduct urban warfare in the densely populated Gaza Strip, which is causing concern among foreign militaries. This week, two main areas of combat were left in the Strip. One is the activity of the 99th Infantry Division, which is based on what was once the "Netzarim Axis," from Nahal Oz to the sea. The brigade has divided the strip into two parts, above and below ground.
The second main area of combat, of course, is in Rafah, the centerpiece of the war at the moment, led by the 162nd Division. This includes taking over the Philadelphi Corridor that spans 14 kilometers, from Kerem Shalom to the sea, and separates the Gaza Strip from Egypt.
The IDF’s takeover has already severed the smuggling route from Egypt to Gaza via the sea and enables dealing with the numerous underground tunnels in the area. Some of these tunnels are located dozens of meters deep, close to the water table. This doesn't mean that all tunnels between Gaza and Egypt have been destroyed, but in this domain, Hamas has suffered a significant blow.
Beyond Philadelphi, the fighting within Rafah itself focuses on a few specific neighborhoods such as Shabura and Tel Sultan. It is intense and challenging in the heavy heat. Hamas still retains command and control capabilities, concentrating on attacks using anti-tank missiles and explosives. However, overall, it has disappeared from the ground level and is avoiding direct confrontation with the IDF, hoping to resurface after our forces withdraw from the area.
Hamas also sets traps for the IDF – like a recent incident where terrorists posed as hostages and raised a white flag to lure IDF forces into rescuing them. A tank that reached the area was indeed attacked with missiles. Fortunately, there were no serious casualties in this incident. In another incident, an IDF unit in Rafah fell into a hornet’s nest – literally. Dozens of stung soldiers required evacuation from the area for medical treatment.
The forces’ burnout is already leading to operational mishaps. On that harsh Saturday last week, in which 11 soldiers were killed in three different incidents, the IDF not only suffered from the disaster involving the armored personnel carrier but also faced issues with explosive devices that did not detonate. However, the most severe burnout is psychological: regular and reserve soldiers (and their families) have been dealing with the immense stress of dangerous combat for many months. After every battle that ends safely, the next one already awaits.
Among reserve units, there is already a noticeable decline in the rate of reporting for duty (although the morale in most cases remains strong). Recently, among all fighters in Gaza, a trend has emerged that was present in very difficult global wars in the past – many soldiers carry farewell letters in their pockets, to be delivered to their loved ones in case they are harmed.
In the context of attrition, it is important to remember that the IDF is an organization, not an idea. It suffers greatly from attacks in the media, which began with criticism of career officers before the war. Morale among career soldiers is already low, and at the first opportunity after the war, thousands of career soldiers will leave the service. The IDF is almost helpless in the face of the crisis awaiting it, and perhaps this is why the IDF spokesperson and even the Chief of Staff (in a government meeting) have begun to openly oppose statements against commanders from the political echelon or its affiliates, such as the IDF spokesperson's announcement dedicated to criticizing the commentator close to Netanyahu, Yaakov Bardugo.
However, the statement by the IDF spokesperson on Channel 13 claiming that the promise to eliminate Hamas (even as an idea) is "delusional" can be considered controversial. This, in turn, led to an inflammatory post by Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi – "The IDF spokesperson's remarks this evening are merely a reflection of the weak leadership of the Chief of Staff and the Minister of Defense." Our enemies can take advantage of these internal battles, but the damage goes far beyond image.
Another note related to the fighting in Gaza: many who were involved in the heroic operation to rescue the four hostages from the heart of the Gaza Strip two weeks ago are protesting against the excessive chatter and the almost endless exposure of footage from the operation, as well as operational details about the activities of the undercover agents before and during the rescue. They have no doubt that Hamas operatives holding the remaining hostages in Gaza are already learning lessons from what happened and are aided by the information provided through these exaggerated publications (even though they are done with the approval of the censor).
The crisis with the US and the Iranian X factor
In light of the severe challenge in the Gaza Strip and what may yet await us in Lebanon and other fronts, what we truly need as a nation is absolute social cohesion and the mobilization of our allies overseas. But we are doing exactly the opposite. Domestically, the insistence on passing a law at this time that exempts an entire sector from military service is strategically damaging. Externally, there is no reasonable explanation for the video the Prime Minister released this week criticizing the United States regarding the armaments it is not sending us.
Regarding the matter at hand, it concerns a shipment of 3,500 bombs for the Air Force's fighter jets. This shipment will arrive sooner or later. Meanwhile, Israeli defense industries are working around the clock to supply the IDF with various types of munitions. As part of this effort, the relocation of IMI Systems' operators, currently part of Elbit Systems, from Ramat HaSharon to Ramat Beka, south of Be'er Sheva, has been postponed.
The video, however, has already led to the cancellation of a meeting of the most strategic discussion forum between Israel and the US, established by Benjamin Netanyahu and Barack Obama back in 2010. The main mandate of the forum is cooperation on the Iranian nuclear threat. The forum's discussion, which was supposed to start yesterday, was canceled after Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi had already arrived in Washington.
By the way, at the working levels, such as in intelligence and cyber fields, the cooperation between Israel and the U.S. remains very close and intimate, despite the escalating disputes at the top. However, the background noise is disruptive here as well. For instance, during a highly-sensitive discussion recently held in the U.S., a senior Israeli official was asked about a childish tweet by "the Israeli Minister of National Security," Itamar Ben Gvir, in which he wrote "Biden (heart) Hamas" – with a heart illustration. The embarrassed Israeli official had no way to explain this disgrace.
And here is the place to mention again, as I have already written in this column: Sometimes it seems like we are doing almost everything to undermine ourselves, while Iran is precisely exploiting these days to break through to its first nuclear bomb. This is the most serious development of these days, which is not receiving the public attention it deserves.
I would love to hear your thoughts and comments. Please be in touch via Twitter and LinkedIn.
