Analysis | The American Perception of “The Day After”
It is essential for Israel to begin considering how to ensure peace and security for the residents of the Gaza envelope communities and to examine how it integrates into an international and Arab framework to stabilize the Palestinian system as a whole
IsraelDefense
| 10/11/2023
By Dr. Shay Har-Zvi
In the early days of the war, the American government repeatedly emphasized the need to formulate a strategy for the day after. In its view, the war between Israel and Hamas extends beyond the borders of Gaza and is, in fact, a global and regional confrontation between the camp led by the United States and the radical axis led by Russia and Iran.
Therefore, the war's outcomes represent a zero-sum game between the factions, and the Israeli decision holds the potential to reshape the regional system as a whole and the Palestinian one in particular.
President Biden's words that the success of Israel and Ukraine in dealing with Russia and Hamas is of great importance to American national security, and that the murderous terrorist attacks by Hamas are intended, among other things, to undermine the normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia – effectively reflects the US government's perception of the broader implications of the war.
The guidelines
US Secretary of State Blinken presented in his speech at the G7 summit in Tokyo on November 8 his government's guiding principles for the 'day after.' According to him, the US opposes the forced removal of Palestinians from Gaza and it is forbidden to create a situation of reoccupying the Gaza Strip or reducing its territory.
He also added that in the future, the Palestinian Authority will need to manage Gaza and the West Bank, and it is essential to ensure that terrorist threats do not emanate from these areas.
Blinken’s statements align with the Biden administration's perspective, as the reality in Gaza cannot revert to what it was until October 6. The two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the only possible solution, intended essentially to protect Israel and assist in preserving its character as a Jewish and democratic state.
Blinken also attempted to convey calming messages to the Arab world and Egypt, indicating that the expanded legitimacy the US grants to Israel is intended to enable it to act in neutralizing the military and governing capabilities of Hamas, but not to make changes in the post-conflict territory.
From the government's perspective, Arab countries should play a key role in the rehabilitation of the territory, both in their willingness and ability to provide the necessary financial support and in stabilizing the governing institutions in the short and medium term until the Palestinian Authority is capable of fulfilling that role.
Furthermore, from the government's perspective, the regional reality 'the day after' should pave the way for the renewal of contacts between Israel and Saudi Arabia towards forming a normalization agreement.
For its part, Saudi Arabia has been signaling that this issue is not off the table. The Saudi minister of investment also clarified that talks on the matter will continue. In this context, Saudi Arabia is set to host in the coming days three summits involving Arab states, African nations, and Muslim world countries, potentially reflecting its pivotal role in shaping the day after.
The government's intense engagements with Arab world countries and the fact that the American government is repeatedly emphasizing the need to begin examining the future of the Palestinian system the day after reflect the significant importance it attributes to the issue.
Moreover, it may indicate signs of questioning regarding Israel's exit strategy. The prime minister's statements in an interview with ABC, stating that 'Israel will hold an all-encompassing security responsibility for the Gaza Strip for an indefinite period,' have certainly raised concerns in Washington about Israeli plans.
The question marks
Consequently, it seems that the issue of the 'day after' could become a focal point for a frontal clash between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government, and between moderate Arab states, primarily Jordan and Egypt. Israel's government faces an unprecedented opportunity to be a partner in shaping a new Middle East.
Therefore, it is essential for Israel to begin considering how to ensure peace and security for the residents of the Gaza envelope communities and to examine how it integrates into an international and Arab framework to stabilize the Palestinian system as a whole.
This understanding acknowledges that aspiring for direct control over the residents of the Gaza Strip would have significant negative implications that would also affect Israel's standing in the international and regional arena.
Such a development would hinder any possibility of advancing a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Israel needs to examine how to deepen cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, as despite its numerous shortcomings, it may emerge as the only possible option for assuming governance responsibility in the Gaza Strip.
Dr. Shay Har-Zvi is a senior fellow and the head of the International and Middle-East Arenas in the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at Reichman University.
It is essential for Israel to begin considering how to ensure peace and security for the residents of the Gaza envelope communities and to examine how it integrates into an international and Arab framework to stabilize the Palestinian system as a whole
By Dr. Shay Har-Zvi
In the early days of the war, the American government repeatedly emphasized the need to formulate a strategy for the day after. In its view, the war between Israel and Hamas extends beyond the borders of Gaza and is, in fact, a global and regional confrontation between the camp led by the United States and the radical axis led by Russia and Iran.
Therefore, the war's outcomes represent a zero-sum game between the factions, and the Israeli decision holds the potential to reshape the regional system as a whole and the Palestinian one in particular.
President Biden's words that the success of Israel and Ukraine in dealing with Russia and Hamas is of great importance to American national security, and that the murderous terrorist attacks by Hamas are intended, among other things, to undermine the normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia – effectively reflects the US government's perception of the broader implications of the war.
The guidelines
US Secretary of State Blinken presented in his speech at the G7 summit in Tokyo on November 8 his government's guiding principles for the 'day after.' According to him, the US opposes the forced removal of Palestinians from Gaza and it is forbidden to create a situation of reoccupying the Gaza Strip or reducing its territory.
He also added that in the future, the Palestinian Authority will need to manage Gaza and the West Bank, and it is essential to ensure that terrorist threats do not emanate from these areas.
Blinken’s statements align with the Biden administration's perspective, as the reality in Gaza cannot revert to what it was until October 6. The two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the only possible solution, intended essentially to protect Israel and assist in preserving its character as a Jewish and democratic state.
Blinken also attempted to convey calming messages to the Arab world and Egypt, indicating that the expanded legitimacy the US grants to Israel is intended to enable it to act in neutralizing the military and governing capabilities of Hamas, but not to make changes in the post-conflict territory.
From the government's perspective, Arab countries should play a key role in the rehabilitation of the territory, both in their willingness and ability to provide the necessary financial support and in stabilizing the governing institutions in the short and medium term until the Palestinian Authority is capable of fulfilling that role.
Furthermore, from the government's perspective, the regional reality 'the day after' should pave the way for the renewal of contacts between Israel and Saudi Arabia towards forming a normalization agreement.
For its part, Saudi Arabia has been signaling that this issue is not off the table. The Saudi minister of investment also clarified that talks on the matter will continue. In this context, Saudi Arabia is set to host in the coming days three summits involving Arab states, African nations, and Muslim world countries, potentially reflecting its pivotal role in shaping the day after.
The government's intense engagements with Arab world countries and the fact that the American government is repeatedly emphasizing the need to begin examining the future of the Palestinian system the day after reflect the significant importance it attributes to the issue.
Moreover, it may indicate signs of questioning regarding Israel's exit strategy. The prime minister's statements in an interview with ABC, stating that 'Israel will hold an all-encompassing security responsibility for the Gaza Strip for an indefinite period,' have certainly raised concerns in Washington about Israeli plans.
The question marks
Consequently, it seems that the issue of the 'day after' could become a focal point for a frontal clash between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government, and between moderate Arab states, primarily Jordan and Egypt. Israel's government faces an unprecedented opportunity to be a partner in shaping a new Middle East.
Therefore, it is essential for Israel to begin considering how to ensure peace and security for the residents of the Gaza envelope communities and to examine how it integrates into an international and Arab framework to stabilize the Palestinian system as a whole.
This understanding acknowledges that aspiring for direct control over the residents of the Gaza Strip would have significant negative implications that would also affect Israel's standing in the international and regional arena.
Such a development would hinder any possibility of advancing a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Israel needs to examine how to deepen cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, as despite its numerous shortcomings, it may emerge as the only possible option for assuming governance responsibility in the Gaza Strip.
Dr. Shay Har-Zvi is a senior fellow and the head of the International and Middle-East Arenas in the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at Reichman University.
