The Turkish Connection

Erdogan: with Netanyahu; against the Kurds, Putin, and ISIS

The attack in Istanbul Ataturk Airport humiliated the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but it will not change its policy of a never-ending zigzag; if you would even call it a policy.

In Israel, it is customary to examine any development from an Israeli perspective, but it is interesting to view the events of June 2016 from a Turkish perspective. Especially during a week when Turkey signs a reconciliation agreement with Israel and suffers its almost weekly attack in the most sensitive place. However, The Turkish perspective is entirely different from how things are portrayed in the media.

Let's start with ISIS: There is a huge gap between Erdogan's rhetoric against the Islamic State and the actions he takes against it. In fact, despite all their talk, Turkey rarely sends their aircraft to attack ISIS targets in Syria. Also, Turkey never took any concrete measures to close its gates and prevent the gathering of ISIS fighters from around the world who seek to enter the war zone through Ataturk Airport. It could do so with relative ease.

In light of all this, it would not be far-fetched to think that Erdogan despises Russia and the Kurds, who are causing damage to ISIS infrastructure, more than he does ISIS members who are Sunni Islamists such as himself.

Erdogan has been on a collision course with the Russian President Putin since Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet over Syrian airspace. However, his biggest trouble is the Kurds. Most of the attacks in Turkey have been carried out by the Kurds, and not by ISIS. Moreover, a de facto Kurdish state has been established right under his nose along the border of Syria and Turkey. The new Kurdish state will surely aspire for territorial contiguity with the Kurdish provinces in eastern Turkey.

In the midst of this tangle, Erdogan saw distinct international advantages in the reconciliation agreement with Israel, but once again, his statements this week were incohesive with his actions. The confrontation with Israel began due to the Marmara flotilla, which intended to break the naval blockade of the Gaza Strip. The blockade has not been lifted following the agreement; hence, this is yet another zigzag of Erdogan.

By the way, the Israeli-Turkish agreement reached this week could be seen as a kind of betrayal in the eyes of Greece and Cyprus, which have invested quite a bit in recent years in building a strategic alliance with Israel. As we stated last week, the primary meaning of the agreement is creating a channel of communication between Israel and Hamas; a channel that was sorely lacking in the days preceding Operation Protective Edge and during the long campaign itself.

ISIS: losing and shooting

If we continue to examine recent developments from different perspectives, we will conclude that the situation in Turkey is excellent compared to what ISIS is going through these days. Their defeat this week in the Turkish city of Fallujah was of strategic importance. ISIS is losing all its territorial assets, due to the US policy in Iraq, and thanks to the Kurds and the Russians.

This trend is irreversible. The difficult situation will only spur ISIS to continue to carry out horrific attacks. The attack in Istanbul was directed against the entire West rather than Turkey itself. The target was chosen due to the relatively easy access in Turkey, who opened its gates to ISIS fighters.

According to Brig. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Nuriel, former head of the Israeli Counterterrorism Bureau, the message ISIS wants to convey is that even if they lose all ground assets, the global terror attacks will continue.

The Israeli security cabinet: a new low

The agreement with Turkey presented a new low in regards to the status of the security cabinet of Israel, which only discussed the issue after the agreement has been signed. The same goes for the IDF. Only a few, if any, were involved in the process.

As for the cabinet, there are three main reasons why it was not exposed to the details of the negotiations with Turkey. One reason is that the Prime Minister does not think very highly of the cabinet ministers. In Netanyahu's eyes, there is no one in the cabinet with a unique military background. After long years in power, Netanyahu does not feel a real need to consult with his ministers on strategic issues.

Moreover, the fact that cabinet deliberations were leaked during Operation Protective Edge and continue to be leaked ever since impairs substantially the ability of the cabinet to work properly. In the recent past, cabinet ministers were more careful not to disclose any information discussed at the secret deliberations.

Furthermore, some sensitive negotiations between countries are better to involve as fewer people as possible until they come to fruition. This is not the first time personal emissaries conduct secret negotiations between countries, nor will it be the last. One of the most memorable occasions was the case of the late Yitzhak Rabin, who distanced the talks with the Palestinians to Oslo so that the intelligence services will not find out about them.

The Palestinians: the unsurprising surprise

The agreement with Turkey has a Palestinian angle to it, because part of it concerns the triangle between Israel, Turkey, and Hamas, while completely ignoring the Palestinian Authority headed by Mahmoud Abbas (who fights alongside Israel against Hamas in the Judea and Samaria district).

This "slap in the face" for Abbas, together with his inflammatory speech against Israel this week, could soon bring the least surprising surprise: the resignation of the PA President, which will lead to a regional chaos.

The "day after" Abbas is an alarming scenario for the Israeli defense establishment and we should all hope that the cabinet is holding in-depth discussions on this issue at least.